Russia has identified opponents it wants to ‘eliminate’ in Ukraine as it undertakes ‘grey zone’ operations aimed at destroying the country, according to defence experts.
The shadowy campaign is part of a regional power play that includes cyber attacks, economic sabotage and the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, analysis shows.
Covert operations in Ukraine are said to have been stepped up primarily through the expansion of Russia’s Federal Security Service in the country via a dedicated team known as the 9th Directorate.
According to a study released by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think-tank this week, it has been identifying people who might resist an invasion, as well as those who could run local government departments after an occupation.
Security expert Alexander Khara told Metro.co.uk a shadow war is being waged inside Ukraine and in the Black and Azov seas off its southern coast while Moscow has an estimated 147,000 troops massed on the land borders.
The former Ukrainian government official, who is based in Kyiv, said this involved drawing up a list of enemy targets in an operation similar to that conceived by the Nazis as they contemplated invading Britain.
‘We are only in the middle of this crisis,’ Mr Khara said.
‘Russia has stated that it is pulling back some of its troops but today there are reports that some 7,000 troops are being brought closer to Ukraine’s borders and there has been the escalation in the Donbass overnight.
‘Russia is also misusing the SOLAS convention, which is for safety of life at sea, by closing down huge areas of the Black Sea near Ukraine’s ports for military drills and rocket tests.
‘In reality, they want to undermine freedom of navigation and Ukraine’s economy, as 80% of our trade goes through the ports. They can do huge harm to us without a bullet being fired.’
Mr Khara drew a wide arc of Russian operations stretching along its own borders and into Crimea and Kremlin ally Belarus to Ukraine’s north, and drew in a wider nuclear element not featured in the research.
‘They have deployed submarines capable of carrying nuclear warheads and we suspect that they have already deployed tactical nuclear weapons to Crimea, which it has turned into a heavily militarised fortress,’ he said.
‘The Russians can target each and every city in Ukraine from Crimea with Kaliber missiles, as well as Europe and the UK. Belarus is also preparing the ground for the possible deployment of nuclear weapons by Russia.
‘The Kremlin is not just playing this nuclear card, it is carrying out drills testing their nuclear shield and capabilities as we speak, sending a signal to the West that they are prepared to use this option to stop what it sees as interference in Ukraine.
‘President Putin confessed himself that while Russia was annexing Crimea in 2014, its strategic nuclear forces were put on high alert.’
The 9th Directorate has used wargame exercises to link Russia’s assets in regional governments with the special and airborne forces who would spearhead an invasion, according to the RUSI’s assessment.
Authors Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds found: ‘Together they mapped which locals would be supportive and began working on lists of targets who would not.
‘The intent was to establish the command-and-control links between intelligence assets and military units to secure critical infrastructure, government buildings, and to locate and eliminate Ukrainian leaders who would rally resistance.’
Entitled ‘The Plot to Destroy Ukraine’, the think-tank’s research also referred to ‘widespread penetration’ of the country’s civic structures by Russian agents whose clandestine activities have included ‘ballooning’ protests over issues such as energy bills and tax reforms.
Mr Khara said: ‘Russia’s escalation also includes grey zone operations, which includes cyber-attacks and hoax bomb calls about schools and public buildings. Within Ukraine, there are sabotage groups synchronised with an invasion or incursion over our borders.
‘They will be used to cut the lines of communication and suppress the ability of our territorial defence forces to help our army if there is an invasion.
‘They are gathering information and preparing for harsh acts, including targeting officials and activists who will not give up if there is an invasion and occupation of Ukraine.
‘It’s similar to the Sea Lion operation by the Nazis during the Second World War, which fortunately was not carried out. The Nazis drew up a list of people to capture and kill, in order to stop them resisting an invasion.’
Moscow said this week that it had pulled some units back from the border after they had completed drills. The announcement drew a sceptical response from Western leaders, with British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss saying today the escalation ‘shows no signs of slowing down’.
Her words were accompanied by a warning from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Moscow is seeking a ‘false flag’ pretext to invade, such as a ‘so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia’.
Mr Khara told Metro.co.uk that a military offensive is one of a number of levers being used by Vladimir Putin to destabilise Ukraine.
‘One of Putin’s key ideas is to use any opportunity he can to bring Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence by destroying our statehood, economy and sowing panic without an invasion,’ he said.
‘While he has a big force to damage our defences, there is no physical option for him to seize the capital or other cities and control them for long periods of time.
‘We have capable armed forces and territorial defence and they are not going to spare a moment killing Russians invading our cities.’
Mr Khara echoed the findings of the report, which said that if Ukraine survives the current tensions, the West must bolster its defences against possible future Russian aggression.
‘We need a holistic approach to our security and defence sector and a long-term programme of building capabilities in Ukraine, such as missile, naval and air defence,’ he said. ‘We can’t do it on our own with our finances and technological level of development.
‘Ukraine has a neighbour which poses an existential threat to us and we need to look to the future.’
Russia has denied planning to invade Ukraine and has said that ‘increasing US and Nato military activity close to Russian borders is alarming’.
The Kremlin wants concessions broadly including the withdrawal of military support for Ukraine and a commitment that it will not join Nato.
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