An outbreak of norovirus could spread in combination with Covid from next month when the UK may face a period of ‘unpredictable epidemics’.
Scientists warned rates of the seasonal vomiting bug are down this year as a result of social distancing rules and heightened hygiene awareness during the pandemic.
Because we have been washing our hands more, wearing masks and staying at home, there has been a drop in colds, flu and other viruses.
As things return to normal, scientists fear the UK is ripe for an unusually large outbreak of these illnesses because the ‘transmission dynamics’ have changed.
The prediction has been made by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O), for the SAGE committee.
A document on their ‘concerns’, published on Friday and dated July 14, described autumn as a risk point.
The statement said: ‘SPI-M-O is concerned that September and October 2021 will be a particularly risky point.
‘In the trajectory of the epidemic. It is likely behaviours will take time to return to more normal levels and, if this coincides with the return of schools and universities in the autumn, significant pressures on healthcare could be seen. This could be exacerbated by other normally seasonal infectious diseases increasing in prevalence.’
The document explained that during the past 18 months, diseases such as influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and norovirus, have been circulating much less in the population than previous years.
It said: ‘Their transmission dynamics have changed due to the measures to control Covid-19 and, as a result, there may be a period of unpredictable epidemics of these diseases before their normal seasonal patterns return.
‘It is also possible there will be interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and other infections, both in combination and in competition. Any such effects are as yet unknown.’
The scientists added that monitoring Covid cases may be more difficult during peaks of other respiratory viruses.
The most common symptoms of norovirus include diarrhoea, vomiting and a high temperature.
Although it usually thrives in winter, health officials have already noticed a spike in England as more people have social interactions.
Cases have been predominantly linked to nursery and childcare facilities so far but there has been a rise across all age groups.
Fears over the illness – and its potential impact on the NHS – come a month after Professor Chris Whitty warned the NHS to ‘brace’ itself for a hard winter – with a flu surge likely.
The chief medical officer told a Downing Street press conference: ‘The winter is inevitably going to be tricky and the NHS is likely to have both Covid and some resurgence of other respiratory viruses that were suppressed by the degree of lockdown last time round.
‘So I think we should be realistic and this coming winter may be very difficult for the NHS.’
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