Temperatures in the UK could hit 40°C for the first time ever tomorrow – but if so, it won’t be the last time it happens.
Forecasters are saying that the unprecedented heat, which has led to schools closing and people told to avoid travel where possible, is up to 10 times more likely than in a natural climate unaffected by human activity.
At the moment, heatwaves like we’re currently experiencing happen only once in 100 to 300 years.
But the Met Office said that by 2100, even with current pledges to reduce emissions this would reduce to just every 15 years.
Climate attribution scientist Dr Nikos Christidis said: ‘Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK.
‘The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence.
‘The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing, and, even with current pledges on emissions reductions, such extremes could be taking place every 15 years in the climate of 2100.’
Over today and tomorrow, London is predicted to be hotter than the Caribbean, and the Western Sahara.
The UK Health Security Agency has issued a level 4 heat-health alert – described as an ’emergency’ – while the Met Office has issued the UK’s first red warning for extreme heat.
There are fears the heat could lead to thousands of deaths, with people urged to ‘do as little as possible’ and avoid outdoor exercise and unnecessary travel.
The advice is to stay inside during the hottest points of the day, between 11am and 4pm, wear sun cream and a hat, stay in the shade and keep hydrated with water.
College of Paramedics chief executive Tracy Nicholls told Sky News’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday programme: ‘This isn’t like a lovely hot day where we can put a bit of sunscreen on, go out and enjoy a swim and a meal outside.
‘This is serious heat that could actually, ultimately, end in people’s deaths because it is so ferocious. We’re just not set up for that sort of heat in this country.’
Transport services are predicted to be disrupted, with some road surfaces set to melt in the heat.
The East Coast Main Line between London King’s Cross and York and Leeds will close from 12pm until 8pm on Tuesday, with no trains running.
Sam MacDougall, operations director for Network Rail said: ‘Closing the line to traffic is always a last resort but it is the right thing to do to keep people safe on Tuesday given the unprecedented heatwave forecast.
‘The forecast temperatures are well above those which our infrastructure is designed for, and safety must come first.’
Preparations are also being made for a surge in the health service.
More call handlers and extra working hours have been put in place for the ambulance service, while the chairman of the NHS Confederation said hospitals are going to be ‘really, really pushed’ over the next few days.
People were also warned not to try and cool off in open water, which can be dangerous.
The body of a boy was recovered in Salford Quays, Greater Manchester, in the early hours of Sunday morning.
A search is meanwhile under way after reports of concern were made for a man seen in a river in Northumberland on Sunday.
A North East Ambulance Service spokesperson said: ‘We were called at 4.12pm this afternoon to reports of concerns for someone in the water off Piper Road in Ovingham.
‘We currently have seven resources on scene but are currently unable to provide any further information.’
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