Boris Johnson will face crunch talks on Monday on whether to introduce new Covid curbs in England to stem a tidal wave of Omicron infections.
The PM will be briefed by chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance on the latest data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths.
He will have to decide tomorrow if he wants to implement legal measures before New Year’s Eve, in order to give himself enough time to re-call Parliament to vote on the matter.
It means the prime minister will have to make a decision without knowing the full impact of social mixing over Christmas on Covid hospitalisations.
Key evidence the government will examine tomorrow includes data on the length of stay in hospitals, the transition rates to intensive care andnew death figures.
Downing Street sources told the Guardian the prime minister would act quickly if there were new causes for concern.
However they suggested No 10 is leaning is away from stricter curbs after data showed people infected with Omicron are up to 70% less likely to need hospital treatment than other variants.
One cabinet minister told the newspaper: ‘The data so far is still struggling to be persuasive of legal changes to be required.’
Another said it was ‘right that we didn’t rush last time given positive, early data’.
But scientists have warned that even though Omicron causes less severe illness that previous strains of Covid-19, the sheer number of cases and its higher transmissibility means that even a small increase in people needing hospital treatment could overwhelm the NHS.
On Friday the Office for National Statistics published ‘sobering’ figures showing that an estimated 1.7 million people in the UK had Covid in the week ending December 19.
The figure was the highest since the survey began in May 2020.
There are concerns soaring cases could cause critical staff shortages across transport, industry and healthcare.
The head of the Royal College of Nursing, Pat Cullen, has said that nurses are in ‘despair’ and working 14-hour shifts because of a ‘very depleted workforce’.
She has called on ministers to impose new restrictions, warning that the government may have already left it ‘too late’ to protect the health service.
One option ministers are said to be considering is a return to phase two restrictions from earlier in the year, which limited pubs and restaurants to outdoor service only and banned indoor mixing between households.
Other possible restrictions being considered include bringing back the rule of six and limiting capacity at mass events, the Daily Mail reports.
But hospitality leaders said a move like this would crush them after two years of being hammered by Covid restrictions.
In a letter to the prime minister and chancellor Rishi Suak, Campaign for Pubs said the industry was ‘on the brink’ after a catastrophic Christmas, adding: ‘The future of our world famous pubs now depends on this.’
Director of the campaign Greg Mulholland told the Mirror: ‘This is an extremely anxious time for publicans and staff in England, not knowing if they will be able to open this week and for New Year.
‘New Year’s Eve is very important for many pubs and with December trade already badly hit by previous announcements, further restrictions would be devastating, including the nonsensical suggestion of outdoor only opening in midwinter.’
He added that banning people from meeting in pubs could result in thousands attending ‘illegal parties which will be much less safe than controlled, ventilated pubs’.
‘So we hope that the data is positive and that pubs can continue to open to the benefit of everyone.’
Night Time Industries Association chief executive Michael Kill also urged the PM to ‘firmly reject calls for further draconian measures’.
It’s not just the hospitality industry expected to oppose new rules.
Many of Boris Johnson’s own MPs have said they won’t support any more Covid restrictions.
Earlier this month, the government suffered a major rebellion from 99 Tory backbenchers in a vote on mandatory Covid-19 passes.
Writing in The Mail on Sunday on Boxing Day, Sir Graham Brady, who chairs the influential 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, warned Mr Johnson not to do anything else to ruin New Year’s Eve plans.
‘Enough is enough,’ he said.
‘There must be no new unnecessary restrictions this week whether the PM sees fit to recall Parliament for an emergency session or whether he resorts simply to more guidance.’
Mr Johnson, who is at his country retreat Chequers, will chair a virtual meeting of top officials tomorrow to study the vital figures collected over the past week.
One option he has is to stop short of legally-binding measures but issue guidance instead.
This would leave it up to people to decide how much risk they are comfortable with.
Ministers have refused to rule anything out but nothing has been confirmed yet.
However, the PM is said to be ‘absolutely determined’ that schools should reopen after the Christmas break – despite rocketing case numbers.
‘There is a shared commitment across government to make sure they stay open,’ a source close to Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi told the Sunday Times.
Amid the debate on new restrictions, the government is pushing ahead with its target to offer booster jabs to all adults in England by the end of the year.
More than 32 million boosters and third jabs have been given as of 23 December, with vaccination centres open throughout the festive period including Christmas Day and Boing Day- and more than a million appointments on offer before the new year.
On Boxing Day, millions of people were sent a text reminding them to get their top up dose – seen as the best defence against Omicron.
Figres suggest about 10% of pre-booked vaccine appointments are missed, while hundreds of thousands of slots have gone unfilled since ministers announced the acceleration of the booster programme two weeks ago.
Ministers are said to be considering door-to-door jabs in areas with low vaccine up-take in order to avoid lockdown and other restrictions, according to the Mail on Sunday.
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